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Southall, H. and Gilbert, D. (1996) ‘A good time to wed? Marriage and economic distress in England and Wales, 1839–1914’, The Economic History Review, 49: 35–57. Szreter, S. (1996) Fertility, Class and Gender in Britain, 1860–1940, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. J. (1999) ‘A theory of out-of-wedlock childbearing’, Journal of Political Economy, 107: S33–64. Wrightson, K. 1980. ‘The Nadir of English illegitimacy in the seventeenth century’, in P. Laslett, K. Oosterveen and R. Smith (eds) Bastardy and Its Comparative History, London: Edward Arnold.

Those women who expect to obtain a significant increase in welfare when they marry suffer a greater long-term cost by having a child while single than women whose marriage prospects are such that they expect to gain little from marriage. Thus, women with poorer marriage prospects should be more likely to have children outside marriage. g. g. 4? The British benefit system for non-employed single mothers is called Income Support (Supplementary Benefit before 1991); it has an implicit 100% tax rate on earnings and other income, which strongly discourages employment.

963. 1 Their first differences are, however, stationary. 1. More marriages of single women reduce the proportion of births outside marriage in subsequent years, and an increase in the proportion of births outside marriage subsequently increases marriages of single women. 2 The negative impact of marriages on bom one year later is consistent with the simple theory’s prediction that shocks that reduce marriages increase births outside marriage. The positive effect of bom on subsequent marriages of single women may reflect postponed marriages of women who had become single mothers.

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